The Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony kicks off tonight at the London Palladium, and the betting market has gone wild. Harry Kane is the favourite at around 4-7, but Kylian Mbappé’s price has crashed from 14-1 to as short as 2-1 after a huge gamble. Lamine Yamal sits at 9-2. The show starts at 8pm GMT, which is 9pm in Nigeria, so clear your evening.
The Case for Harry Kane
Kane scored 73 goals for club and country, won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal with Bayern Munich, and scored six goals at the World Cup as England reached the semi-final. If he wins, he becomes only the fifth Englishman to take the prize, after Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen. Owen was the last, back in 2001. The knock on Kane is the lack of a big trophy with England.
Why Mbappé’s Price Crashed
The money came in fast. Mbappé scored 43 goals in 47 games for Real Madrid last season without winning a trophy, which hurts his case. But he set a World Cup record of 14 goal involvements, even though France finished fourth.
Last night he scored twice at Camp Nou to beat Barcelona 2-1, outshining Yamal on the eve of the ceremony. Remember, though, that the votes were already in. That brace explains the betting move, not the result.
Yamal: The Trophy Collector
Yamal’s résumé is the shiniest. He lifted the World Cup with Spain and won La Liga with Barcelona. The catch is that Barça fell in the Champions League quarter-finals, and his odds have drifted out to 9-2. Both he and Mbappé have openly backed themselves, while Kane has stayed quiet.
Other Storylines to Watch
- Defending champion: Ousmane Dembélé won last year and is on the shortlist again.
- Messi: The eight-time winner, now 39, is among the 30 nominees.
- Kopa Trophy: Yamal is in the running for the best young player award.
- Women’s award: It is wide open after Aitana Bonmatí missed the shortlist.
Our Read
Kane is the favourite for good reason, and the numbers behind his season are huge. But this award has delivered shocks before, and a big late gamble always makes it more fun. Who is your pick? Drop it in the comments before 9pm Nigerian time.
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