Lionel Messi has won everything there is to win in football. Eight Ballon d’Ors. Four Champions Leagues. The 2022 World Cup. He has seen this game from every angle — as a young prodigy, a serial winner, a fallen hero, and ultimately, the man who completed the set in Qatar. So when he sits down and gives his honest take on who’s going to win the 2026 World Cup, you pay attention.
And what he said? Genuinely fascinating.
Argentina? Not the Favourites, Says Messi
Speaking in a candid YouTube interview with Argentine journalist Pollo Álvarez, the 38-year-old Inter Miami captain was asked about Argentina’s chances of defending their world title in North America this summer. Most players in his position would have said all the right diplomatic things. Messi did not.
“We have to understand that there are other favourites ahead of us — teams that are arriving in better form,” he said flatly. The defending champions, in Messi’s own assessment, are not the ones to beat.
That’s the kind of honesty you rarely get from a man about his own national team six weeks before a World Cup. And rather than just leaving it there, he went further — naming four specific nations he believes are currently better equipped than Argentina to lift the trophy.
France: “So Many Top-Level Players”
Messi’s number one pick? France. The very team Argentina beat on penalties in that unforgettable 2022 final in Qatar.
“France are in great shape again,” he said. “They have a ton of top-level players.” That might be the understatement of the decade. Didier Deschamps goes to North America with arguably the most frightening squad in the tournament: Kylian Mbappé leading the line, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé pulling the strings, Michael Olise fresh from a brilliant season at Bayern Munich, and a generation of youngsters — Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki, Warren Zaïre-Emery — who would walk into almost any other nation’s starting XI but may have to settle for the bench in this one. The fact that young stars like Cherki, Bradley Barcola and Zaïre-Emery will likely have to settle for substitute roles tells you everything about the quality of this French squad. If they click, they could be unstoppable.
Spain: The Generational Rebuild Is Complete
Next up, Spain. Messi acknowledged that La Roja have undergone an impressive rebuild in recent years, and the results are already showing. Lamine Yamal at just 18 years old is already one of the most electrifying players on the planet. Their style of play, fluid and positionally intelligent, carries echoes of the great Tiki-Taka era that dominated world football between 2008 and 2012. The difference now is youth — this team has years ahead of it, and the 2026 World Cup could be the moment it fully arrives.
Brazil: The Sleeping Giant Awakens
Then there’s Brazil. Messi was clear: “Brazil is always a candidate.” Even when they’re not at their absolute best, you write them off at your peril. And this time around, they have something extra — Carlo Ancelotti on the touchline.
When one of the greatest club managers in history takes his first international job, it sends a signal. Ancelotti brings Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, Neymar — who has made a comeback to the squad after over two years away — Matheus Cunha, and a squad bristling with Premier League and Champions League pedigree. Brazil haven’t won the World Cup since 2002. That 24-year wait is a wound that hasn’t healed. Under Ancelotti, the hunger to end it is very real.
Portugal: “A Very Competitive Team”
And finally, Portugal. Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising inclusion of the four, given that Messi is essentially rating Cristiano Ronaldo’s country above his own Argentina. But his logic is hard to argue with. He described Portugal as possessing “a very competitive and strong national team” — a squad that blends Ronaldo’s veteran leadership with a rich new generation of talent. This may well be the last World Cup for both Messi and Ronaldo on the same stage. If the footballing gods have any sense of drama, they’ll arrange a meeting in the knockout rounds.
So What About Argentina?
Messi didn’t write Argentina off entirely. He acknowledged the squad’s fighting spirit and noted that when the group comes together, “it has always proven capable of competing and fighting for victory.” There are also injury and fitness concerns within the Albiceleste camp heading into the tournament. But the message was clear: this time, Argentina will need to earn it the hard way.
Which, knowing Messi, is probably exactly how he wants it.
The 2026 World Cup kicks off on June 11. Fifteen nations, four picked by the greatest player who ever lived as the ones to beat. Buckle up — it’s going to be one hell of a summer.
